Super Tuesday 2012
Prediction #2: Rick Santorum will win only two states, Oklahoma and Tennessee
Santorum leads the polls in these two southern states, but Romney’s ahead of Santorum in the other eight. Ohio’s too close to call but has been trending toward Romney since his Michigan victory. Santorum failed to submit complete paperwork for nine Ohio districts, which makes him ineligible for 18 state delegates. This means that recent polls showing him and Romney neck-and-neck may overpredict Santorum’s delegates relative to Romney’s. If Santorum takes Ohio, the deciding factor may be Operation Hilarity.
Prediction #3: Only Romney will win delegates in all 10 states—and he’ll win at least 10 in each state
Romney is second in the polls to Santorum in two states, second to Newt Gingrich in one, and on top in the other seven. Vermont has only 17 delegates, but Romney is heavily favored to win there. Ron Paul will do better in caucus states—Idaho (32 delegates), North Dakota (28), and Alaska (27)—but Romney should do well enough to pick up 10 delegates each. Second-place Santorum will win nothing in Virginia, where he’s not on the ballot, and possibly none in Idaho, where he received 0 votes in a Tea Party Straw Poll. For about half the states, Paul and Gingrich will pick up no delegates.
Prediction #4: Paul will win more delegates in Idaho than in the other nine states combined
Paul does better in small caucus states, where his well-organized operation is more influential (i.e. where his fanatical supporters can rig the vote). Santorum will likely be eliminated in early rounds of voting in Idaho, where candidates are dropped in successive rounds until one has at least 50% of the vote. Outside of the three caucus states, Paul should win at most five delegates, all in Virginia. Paul cleaned up in early caucus states, but he won’t be able to replicate that success in the proportional allocation states. He will likely be the only candidate who doesn’t win more delegates on Super Tuesday than he has won to date.
Prediction #5: After Romney’s rout on Tuesday, Santorum will still have at least half the number of Romney’s delegates and a quarter of all delegates awarded to date
Romney’s likely to clean up on Super Tuesday; Gingrich is far from his December polling highs; and Paul never had a chance of winning the nomination; but the race isn’t over, if only because the three also-rans are too stubborn to quit. It’ll be virtually impossible for Gingrich or Paul to reach the required 1,144 delegates to win—either would have to win about 75% of the remaining delegates. Santorum’s not likely to quit soon, even though he’d have to win two-thirds of the remaining delegates, which would be possible only in the event of a major Romney scandal or sudden shift in public opinion.
As Romney’s political director put it, Santorum’s showing on Super Tuesday will not “do anything to cut the delegate lead. He is going to fall further and further behind. It becomes a mathematical battle as much as it is a political one, and the math just doesn’t add up for Santorum.” (As one Santorum senior strategist put it, “The argument that math is on their side is uninspiring and laughable,” which just proves that the Santorum campaign doesn’t understand math.)
Note: For these predictions I used RCP polling averages, recent polls where averages were unavailable, and straw poll results. I made no firm predictions for fruity caucus state North Dakota, for which there was only a Tea Party straw poll last fall in which Herman Cain won and Romney, Santorum, and Gingrich didn’t even place; and nutty caucus state Alaska, for which there was only a poll from October 2010 with Mike Huckabee in first place. Nate Silver and Intrade were not consulted for this article.
The stakes are clear. For Romney, coming off victories in Michigan and Arizona, the mission is to keep amassing more delegates than his rivals, and polls suggest he will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday.
Exit polls showed Michigan voters' top priority was the economy, a benefit to Romney, who has argued that he has stronger business credentials than Santorum, his chief rival. Romney's perceived electability against President Barack Obama also persuaded some voters to choose the former Massachusetts governor over Santorum, polls showed.
Santorum needs to recover from the missteps that blunted the momentum he was riding after a string of victories in early February, when he appeared positioned to consolidate the conservative vote. While his campaign has chastised the media for overlooking Santorum's economic platform, a number of controversial statements by the candidate on birth control and the separation of church and state have left mainstream Republicans concerned the former Pennsylvania senator is too far to the right to win in November.
For Santorum, the most important Super Tuesday state is Ohio, a Rust Belt neighbor to his home state of Pennsylvania and a place where Santorum currently leads in the polls.
In part because of Santorum's stumbles, Gingrich has an opportunity for yet another rebirth. But he needs to show he remains a viable option, and he knows it. Speaking on Thursday at a campaign event, Gingrich acknowledged, "I have to win Georgia," his home state.
As for Paul, he says he's happy to be outperforming his 2008 results. But he's had little to show for his supposed delegate strategy. He has 18 in the latest Associated Press tally, which includes a projection of how many unpledged delegates he'll collect from caucus states that have not awarded them yet.
If turnout mirrors what happened in 2008, it's likely that nearly as many votes will be cast on March 6 than have been cast in the entire GOP nominating contest to date. There are certainly more delegates at stake on that one day - 437 - than the 302 awarded in the earliest-voting states.
Here's a primer on the Super Tuesday states, ranked according to the number of delegates at stake:How it works: 31 delegates will be awarded proportionally to any candidate receiving more than 20 percent of the statewide vote. The winner in each of the state's 14 congressional districts will earn another two delegates, and the second-place finisher will win one, unless one candidate wins more than 50 percent in a district. The other three delegates are the elected state party leaders.
2008 result: In a close three-way race, Mike Huckabee won 34 percent of the vote, followed by John McCain with 32 percent and Romney with 30 percent.
2012 advantage: An automated SurveyUSA poll has Gingrich ahead by 15 points, 39 percent to 24 percent, over Santorum.How it works: 15 delegates will be awarded on a proportional basis to any candidate receiving more than 20 percent of the statewide vote. If a candidate has more than 50 percent, though, he wins all 15. Another three delegates will be awarded to the winner in each of the state's 16 congressional districts.
In both cases, voters are electing delegates who have pledged to vote for a presidential nominee. Santorum, it should be noted, did not file delegate lists in all of the congressional districts.
The final three delegates are the elected state party leaders.
2008 result: McCain easily defeated Huckabee, 60 percent to 31 percent.
2012 advantage: It's close, by most estimates, but Santorum is polling strong. A new Quinnipiac poll released Friday put Santorum just ahead of Romney, 35 percent to 31 percent. A University of Cincinnati poll had Santorum further ahead, 37 percent to 26 percent.How it works: 28 delegates will be awarded on a proportional basis to any candidate receiving more than 20 percent of the statewide vote. If one candidate has more than 66 percent of the vote, he wins all 28. In the nine congressional districts, a candidate will win all three delegates if he wins 66 percent of the vote. If the winner and runner-up both have between 20 percent and 66 percent of the vote, the winner receives two delegates and the runner-up gets one. The other three delegates are the elected state party leaders.
2008 result: Huckabee edged McCain 34 percent to 32 percent, with Romney receiving 24 percent of the vote.
2012 advantage: Santorum's message hasn't played well with centrists, but resonates in the conservative South. A Middle Tennessee State University poll has him leading Romney 40-19 percent.How it works: 13 delegates will be awarded proportionally to any candidate receiving 15 percent of the vote. But because there are only two candidates on the ballot - Romney and Paul - it will likely be winner-take-all. Three delegates will also be awarded to the winner in each of the 11 congressional districts.
2008 result: McCain beat Huckabee 50 percent to 41 percent.
2012 advantage: Romney is in great shape. Three polls - by Roanoke College, the Richmond Times-Dispatch and Quinnipiac University - all had Romney ahead of Paul by double digits.How it works: 25 delegates will be awarded on a proportional basis to any candidate receiving more than 15 percent of the statewide vote, unless one candidate has more than 50 percent, in which case he wins all 25. In each of the state's five congressional districts, three delegates will be awarded proportionally to candidates with 15 percent of the vote, unless, again, one had more than 50 percent of the vote in that district. The other three delegates are the elected state party leaders.
2008 result: McCain edged Huckabee 37 percent to 33 percent, while Romney had 25 percent.
2012 advantage: The Sooner Poll, conducted through mid-February, had Santorum leading Romney 39 percent to 23 percent, with Gingrich in third at 18 percent.How it works: 11 delegates will be awarded proportionally to any candidate receiving more than 15 percent of the statewide vote. Another three delegates will be awarded based on the vote in each of the state's nine congressional districts, again proportionally to any candidate receiving more than 15 percent of the vote. The other three delegates are the elected state party leaders.
2008 result: Favorite son Romney won the Super Tuesday contest with 51 percent of the vote, with eventual nominee McCain scoring a close second with 41 percent.How it works: According to the Idaho Republican Party, a secret vote will be held at each county caucus, lasting several rounds. In each round, the candidate with the least number of votes is eliminated until one reaches 50 percent. County results will then be tabulated statewide, with 29 delegates awarded proportionally based on the final tallies. The other three delegates are the elected state party leaders.
2008 result: Idaho held a primary in May 2008 that McCain won handily, 70 percent to 24 percent over Paul.
2012 advantage: Unclear. Idaho has shifted from a primary system to holding caucuses so it could move its vote earlier in the calendar. Each of the candidates has spent time here.How it works: The caucuses will begin the process of allocating delegates to the national convention, but all 28 will remain unbound, meaning they can ultimately vote for whichever candidate they choose.
2008 result: Romney won 36 percent of the delegates elected to the state convention, McCain won 23 percent, Paul 21 percent and Huckabee 20 percent.
2012 advantage: Unclear. All four candidates have spent time in the state, including Romney, who stopped there on Thursday. Gingrich has made energy policy crucial to his recent message, with North Dakota, a booming oil state, in mind. Paul performs better in caucus states and should do well here.How it works: 24 delegates will be awarded on a proportional basis to candidates, based on the statewide vote, at individual district conventions. The other three delegates are the elected state party leaders.
2008 result: Romney won 44 percent of the state convention delegates elected, twice as many as second-place finisher Huckabee. Paul had 17 percent, and McCain, who ultimately tapped then-Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate, got 15 percent.
2012 advantage: Unclear. Alaska is the only state with the distinction of having no candidates campaign there - yet. Paul may be making a stop there this weekend.How they're awarded: 14 delegates will be awarded on a proportional basis to any candidate receiving more than 20 percent of the statewide vote, unless one candidate received a majority. The other three delegates are the elected state party leaders.
2008 result: McCain easily defeated Huckabee 72 percent to 14 percent.
2012 advantage: A Castleton State College poll had Romney ahead of Santorum 34 percent to 27 percent.
This three-hour live web broadcast will be held in conjunction with Super Tuesday, when votes in states nationwide go to the polls to cast their ballots for the GOP contenders for president.
The production is a partnership between TV One; Martin’s company, Nu Vision Media, Inc.; UStream.tv; and NewsOne.com, a sister website of TV One, both owned by parent company, Radio One.
Martin says the web broadcast is to offer the Black perspective on an important night, and allow African Americans to be able to weigh in on the election results.
WATCH Washington Watch’s special coverage of Super Tuesday on RolandMartinReports.com.
“There is considerable interest among African Americans in this election year, just as it was in 2008,” said Martin, who is also host and managing editor of Washington Watch.
“We want to be able to weigh in on the election results by offering a unique perspective that will not be heard on any other cable news or broadcast channel. By having a live audience of nearly 300 Howard University students, we will also be engaging a significant part of the electorate.”
In addition to a number of regular contributors of TV One’s Washington Watch, which airs Sundays at 11 am EST, members of the Howard’s College Democrats and College Republicans will be a part of the broadcast.
NewsOne.com’s Chief Content Officer, Smokey Fontaine, and his team will be on-site to provide instant feedback for what is being discussed in the social media world.
Ustream.tv, the world’s leading live interactive broadcast platform, will stream the content to users worldwide, and the Washington Watch web special will be carried on www.tvoneonline.com; www.newsone.com; www.rolandsmartin.com;
www.rolandmartinreports.com; and affiliated Howard University websites.
In addition, students from Howard’s John H. Johnson School of Communications will be a part of the production crew for this live web special edition of Washington Watch.
Along with providing commentary and election results, Martin and his panel will delve into topics such as voter suppression and African Americans and the GOP. Confirmed guests include Joe Madison, Sirius/XM Satellite Radio show host; Rich Galen, conservative commentator and former press secretary for Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich; Jeff Johnson, TheGrio.com correspondent; Dr. Christ Metzler, Georgetown University professor; Sophia Nelson, analyst and author “Black Woman Redefined” and Deborah Simmons, Washington Times correspondent.
Also, comedian Huggy Lowdown, heard daily on The Tom Joyner Morning Show, will also provide political comedy for the broadcast, offering his hilarious take on the GOP candidates and President Barack Obama.
“Our aim is to cover the serious political issues facing the country, but also provide a bit of levity,” said Martin. “I’m thankful that Howard President Sidney Ribeau and the Bison family have embraced this concept, and we hope folks nationwide will tune in for a different and much needed perspective on the GOP primary battle.”
Hosted by TV One chief political editor Roland Martin, TV One’s hour-long weekly public affairs series Washington Watch with Roland Martin focuses on issues of importance to African Americans, through interviews with officials from the Administration, Congress and other policymakers who represent black communities, as well as discussions with journalists and commentators, and a wide range of policy experts. Washington Watch with Roland Martin also explores a wide range of timely and relevant topics including history, books, music, films, technology and black culture.
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